The 2007 hurricane season officially began on June 1. Now, we have Hurricane Dean, the first really big storm of the Atlantic Hurricane season.
I've never lived near the ocean, and I can't imagine the power of these giant storms. I watch them on my television screen and I am just fascinated, even as I am horrified at the damage that they do and the devastation that they cause for the people who live in their paths.
This one is one of the really big ones -- the kind of storm that is classified as "category 5." Already, Dean has torn through Jamaica and the Cayman Islands leavi
ng terrible damage in its wake, and killing at least twelve people at last report. This morning it has hit full-force in the Yucatan Penninsula, and I imagine we will soon begin to hear the reports on the damage and loss of life from there as well. We cannot know for sure where Hurricane Dean will track after it crosses the Yucatan.
There are predictions, of course. The National Hurricane Service tracks these big storms, using sophisticated equipment and computer modeling software. They can then predict the path and intensity of the storm for the next five days. Here is the graphic that shows the projected path of Hurricane Dean:
These graphics show probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 64 kt...74 mph (hurricane force). These wind speed probability graphics are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. Each graphic provides cumulative probabilities that wind speeds of at least 74 mph will occur during cumulative time periods at each specific point on the map. The cumulative periods begin at the start of the forecast period and extend through the entire 5-day forecast period at cumulative 12-hour intervals (i.e., 0-12 h, 0-24 h, 0-36 h, ... , 0-120 h). An individual graphic is produced for each cumulative interval, and the capability to zoom and animate through the periods is provided. To assess the overall risk of experiencing winds of at least 74 mph at any location, the 120-h graphics are recommended.
If you are interested in being able to get up to date hurricane information, the National Huricane Center Website is a great place to go to get accurate forecasts.
I've never lived near the ocean, and I can't imagine the power of these giant storms. I watch them on my television screen and I am just fascinated, even as I am horrified at the damage that they do and the devastation that they cause for the people who live in their paths.
This one is one of the really big ones -- the kind of storm that is classified as "category 5." Already, Dean has torn through Jamaica and the Cayman Islands leavi
ng terrible damage in its wake, and killing at least twelve people at last report. This morning it has hit full-force in the Yucatan Penninsula, and I imagine we will soon begin to hear the reports on the damage and loss of life from there as well. We cannot know for sure where Hurricane Dean will track after it crosses the Yucatan.There are predictions, of course. The National Hurricane Service tracks these big storms, using sophisticated equipment and computer modeling software. They can then predict the path and intensity of the storm for the next five days. Here is the graphic that shows the projected path of Hurricane Dean:
They can also supply the probable wind speeds for the hurricane in the form of a table:
These graphics show probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 64 kt...74 mph (hurricane force). These wind speed probability graphics are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. Each graphic provides cumulative probabilities that wind speeds of at least 74 mph will occur during cumulative time periods at each specific point on the map. The cumulative periods begin at the start of the forecast period and extend through the entire 5-day forecast period at cumulative 12-hour intervals (i.e., 0-12 h, 0-24 h, 0-36 h, ... , 0-120 h). An individual graphic is produced for each cumulative interval, and the capability to zoom and animate through the periods is provided. To assess the overall risk of experiencing winds of at least 74 mph at any location, the 120-h graphics are recommended.
If you are interested in being able to get up to date hurricane information, the National Huricane Center Website is a great place to go to get accurate forecasts.
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